A Direct Line Blog

By Donya Parrish, MCU VP- Risk Management

Many of you are watching the economy and wondering what’s in store for the remainder of 2023. Predictions of a recession are quieting down, we are past the debt ceiling crisis, and the Federal Reserve just held rates steady at their last meeting; but, there are also reports of layoffs at large Montana banks in recent weeks, and consumer concern about the rate environment. What does it all mean and how should your credit union be preparing to respond to any changes in the economy?

CUNA’s Chief Economist Mike Schenk discusses economic and lending trends in this podcast: The state of lending. In it, Schenk notes, “There’s a good deal of uncertainty in the marketplace—2023 looks a lot different than 2022. I wouldn’t necessarily characterize the forecast as a reversion to the mean, but things will look more normal over this forecast horizon than they have in the last couple years.”

If you prefer a visual update with charts and graphs over an audio podcast, you can also view the May 2023 CUNA Economic Update with Dawit Kebede, CUNA Senior Economist. While recorded prior to the debt limit deal and bill signing, it provides important economic information on trends and credit union impact.

In addition, you can find a summary report of what Montana credit unions reported to NCUA on the first quarter 2023 Call Reports. The report covers Montana, our region, and the nation, and our state has some very positive numbers compared to national trends. Will it continue? We can’t predict that, but keeping up on the materials noted above can help your credit union be prepared.

Looking for even more detail, including a Montana specific discussion? The Bureau of Business and Economic Research has Midyear Economic Updates coming to seven locations across the state starting August 1. Find one near you and register to hear Patrick Barkey discuss an in-depth overview of Montana’s economy.