A Direct Line Blog

The Credit Union Trends Report is a monthly “pulse check” on the state of the credit union marketplace, often placed in a historical context. The report includes data from two months prior and is published and distributed by TruStage Chief Economist Steven Rick. Their October 2024 Credit Union Trends Report is now available and highlights this month include:

Economy

• Credit union liquidity has risen over the last year but remains close to the lowest ratio in credit union history
• The average credit union member increased their total credit union deposits by $504 over the last year, from $13,420 in August 2023 to $13,942 in August 2024
• Year-to-date savings balances grew 3.9% in 2024, significantly below the past 23-year average of 5.7%, but above the 0.7% reported in 2023
• But with the Federal Reserve expected to lower short-term interest rates by another 25 basis points later this year, credit union net interest margins could widen as funding costs fall faster than asset yields

Lending

• During the last 12 months, credit union loan balances increased a relatively weak 3.5%, which is half the 7% long-run annual loan growth rate
• Consumer credit outstanding is rising only 2.3% year-over-year, below the 5% long run average
• High auto loan rates will ensure that new-vehicle sales remain below the 16.5 million pace through 2025
• Following years of higher-than-average home price growth, the housing market appears overvalued. So, expect home price appreciation to slow below the 4% long run average in 2025
• We are forecasting 6% credit union loan growth for 2025 due to faster deposit growth next year, lower loan interest rates on new loans, a shift in consumer spending from services back to goods and rising consumer confidence

Members/Assets

• The personal savings rate (personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) has increased to 5% in August, up from 3.1% in August of 2022. We expect savings balances to grow 5% in 2024 and 7% in 2025
• Year-to-date credit union memberships rose 0.6%, below the 2.4% pace in the similar time in 2023
• The recent pace of 0.6% is still faster than the overall U.S. population growth rate of 0.4%. Therefore, credit unions are still picking up market share from banks and other depository institutions

You can find other reports on the TruStage website and subscribe to receive an email when they are released month.